Bye Bye Blair, Bonjour Brown June 30, 2007

One wonders what exactly the exit of Mr Blair as Prime Minister will do not only to the politicial landscape of the UK but to the rest of the world. Will Brown be like John Major was to Margaret Thatcher, a pale imitation? Someone who merely carries on the policies of the person that they served under for so long? There were always reports of in-fighting between Blair and Brown with the outcome seemingly always that Brown would back down and let Tony have his way. So, despite lasting so long as a partnership are there fundamental differences in the politics of these two men?

The cabinet reshuffling is much like the shell game — a game of distraction. The place where you should always keep your eyes focused is on the person moving the shells around — in this case Brown.

Will Brown be so easily convinced to follow after his American counterpart? Who knows? One thing that always characterised the government of Blair was big promises that were very rarely delivered — the excuses always stage-managed better than the projects. The whole of politics span so much that you couldn’t ever really accuse anyone of back-tracking because they were instead spinning around in circles.

The Iraq war both built and broke Blair. There were successes which won him fans, but the lies and the farcical events which made George junior seem idiotic covered Blair in the same brand of shame. Brown to a degree avoided being tarred with the same brush, but now he is in the driving seat will this remain a possibility? He is lucky in that he is not going to have to endure the reign of George for as long as Blair did, but how he behaves towards the next President is something that is going to be closely scrutinised. Blair lacked a backbone and we were dragged ever closer to that idea of us as the 51st state. Britain hates to be thought of as being in anyone’s pocket — we don’t regard ourselves as European, or a large majority don’t, and we share the same land mass as them, so it is understandable when we don’t want to be seen kow-towing to the United States either.

Blair is off to the Middle East as an ambassador in a place that he and George helped destabilise so that should give him an interesting shift of perspective. Brown’s new job title should do the same for him. He has shared the reigns with Blair though, always having been something of a second fiddle. He is not as slick as Blair and that makes one question whether or not his shelf-life will be cut drastically short because of this. Nowadays it is less important whether you are a good politician and more significant how your media image works. One thing is definite — it is going to be an interesting time leading up to and during the next General Election. We will hear what policies Brown wants to lead with and we will see whether his dreams of being the party leader were ever really justified. Blair still has the potential to outshine his former partner and extend and enhance his legacy if he can work some kind of positive effect in the Middle East.

Brown has worked to shake off the reputation for being dour, has tried to become the family man in the eyes of the media. He has always maintained some notional distance between himself and Blair, even managing this when apparently supporting his boss. Time will tell if he is more than a pale facsimile. The machinery of parliament has a way of crushing difference out of people. Blair despite his faults had a way of pushing what he wanted through parliament; he made a significant contribution to the shape of British society that any successor, let alone his old right hand man, would have a hard time competing with. Brown, if anyone, possesses the determination to at least try to do something different.